Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/JPY-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.You might have wondered: where and how should I start learning Japanese and what apps would ease my pain teaching myself? While there are tons of paid and free Japanese Learning Apps on the market, not all of them are the most effective tools for self-teaching. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise.Short positions are 2.72% higher than yesterday and 18.97% higher from last week.Long positions are 1.39% higher than yesterday and 14.99% higher from last week.A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/JPY - the ratio stands at -4.54 (18.05% of traders are long) – typically bullish reading.Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment – USD/JPY Price Chart I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels. Keep in mind aside from the clear & present danger of FX intervention, the BoJ interest rate decision and US Core Inflation (CPI) are on tap next week – expect volatility here. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards parallel resistance– losses should be limited to the 146.23 IF price is heading higher with a breach / close above this zone needed to keep the immediate rally viable. A topside breach / close above 152 would likely fuel another accelerated run with such a scenario exposing subsequent resistance objectives around the 1990 high-week close at 157.80 and the 1990 high at 160.40.įor a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategyīottom line: The USD/JPY breakout is extending into confluent uptrend resistance- risk for price inflection / exhaustion in the week ahead. Initial weekly support rests back at the 1989 high-week close / swing high at 146.23-147.67- a break / close below this threshold would threaten a larger correction within the broader uptrend (medium-term bullish invalidation). Note that a parallel of the original 2021 / 2022 slope, extending off the 2018 highs converges on this threshold- looking for a possible price inflection up here. The immediate focus is on a weekly resistance just higher at the 1989 high / 1986 low at 151.90-152. I’ve been tracking ongoing divergence since the May high and looking to see if this stretch marks a third reference high, raising the threat for near-term exhaustion. That said, weekly RSI remains in deep in overbought territory, keeping momentum on the side of the bulls for now. There have not been many instances of such a stretch and few technical assumptions can be assumed off this single observation. USD/JPY is poised to mark a tenth consecutive weekly advance – a feat not accomplished since 2013. Technical Outlook: In last month’s Japanese Yen Technical Forecast I noted that USD/JPY was approaching a, “major technical threshold at the 1998 high-week close / swing high at 146.23-147.67- an area of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection.” A solid inflection last week fueled another accelerated rally with the advance taking out, “objectives at the 100% extension of the 2011 advance (149.07) and the 150-handle, and the 1998 high at 151.90.” Looking for a reaction up here. Webinar Has Ended Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY WeeklyĬhart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist USD/JPY on Tradingview
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